The Disappearance
On March 8, 2014, a Boeing 777 carrying 239 people vanished from radar over the South China Sea. It turned west, crossed the Malay Peninsula in the opposite direction of its Beijing flight plan, and disappeared into the Indian Ocean along a curve called the seventh arc.
Twelve years and over $200 million of ocean search later, no wreckage has been found at the predicted crash site. Part One walks through the radar tracks, the Inmarsat handshake data, the BTO and BFO calculations, the three searches that came back empty, and the debris that washed up on the wrong side of the ocean with the wrong amount of barnacle growth.
Chapters
- 0:00 Cold Open
- 0:17 The Vanishing
- 0:26 The Scale of the Search
- 0:47 Nothing at the Crash Site
- 0:51 Title: The Disappearance
- 0:59 The Aircraft
- 1:23 The Passengers
- 1:45 The Route
- 2:02 Normal Operations
- 2:20 Last Words from the Cockpit
- 2:34 Silence
- 2:49 What ATC Saw
- 3:09 What Military Radar Saw
- 3:35 The Altitude Anomaly
- 4:11 Last Radar Contact
- 4:35 An Unexpected Witness
- 5:17 Seven Pings
- 5:26 BTO Explained
- 5:54 BFO Explained
- 6:20 South, Not North
- 6:49 The Seventh Arc
- 7:32 The SDU Anomaly
- 8:43 Unredacted Data Anomalies
- 9:40 The Confidence Problem
- 9:58 The First Search
- 10:40 The Second Search
- 11:10 The Debris That Did Appear
- 11:43 The Drift Contradiction
- 12:28 The Third Search
- 13:02 The Arithmetic
- 13:31 Two Narratives
- 13:59 The Alternative
- 14:40 What Both Sides Agree On
- 14:57 Bridge to Part Two
- 15:33 The Promise
- 15:45 The Search Continues
Full Transcript
The narration below says "no explanation has ever been offered for this profile". That is wrong. Angus Houston, who led the search, stated on 23 June 2014 that "the primary radar data pertaining to altitude is regarded as unreliable", because Malaysian radar was not calibrated precisely enough to determine altitude. Malaysia's 2018 Safety Investigation Report (p. 4) independently calls the blip-to-blip altitude and speed changes "well beyond the capability of the aircraft" and states that "the only useful information obtained from the Military radar was the latitude and longitude position", adding on p. 6 that the profile was "not achievable even after repeated simulator sessions". The 45,000 ft and 23,000 ft figures come from March 2014 press reporting of leaked raw radar and appear in neither official report. The argument that follows in this chapter, that the profile rules out pilot suicide and mechanical failure, does not stand, because the profile is not a measurement.
The narration below places the last radar detection "near the island of Penang at two twenty-two AM". Those are two different points. The aircraft passed 10 nm south of Penang Island at 01:52:31 MYT. The final military radar return was at 02:22:12 MYT, 10 nm past waypoint MEKAR on airway N571, about 195 nm from Butterworth and roughly 195 nm northwest of Penang. The sentence takes the time of one and the place of the other, which understates how far the aircraft was tracked.
Related Topics
Full research deep-dive on the radar tracks, Inmarsat data, and search history.
How the seven handshakes became the foundation of the official investigation.
250,000 square kilometres and three searches. All zero-find.
33 pieces recovered from six African and Indian Ocean countries. Including the barnacle anomaly.
Interactive map of the known MH370 trajectory and the leading alternative theories.
Side-by-side comparison of the ATSB position and the authentication case.